Ukraine will soon enter the fourth year of a low-intensity war with Russia. More than 7% of its territory remains occupied by its aggressive neighbor. Will Ukraine survive as a free, independent, pro-Western nation?
"It's 50-50," a veteran European diplomat who knows the region well told me this weekend in Kiev. His gloomy assessment was echoed by many of the 350 current and former officials, academics, businessmen and journalists attending the 14th annual Yalta European Strategy conference, a two-day gathering sponsored by pro-Western oligarch Victor Pinchuk that has become a popular stop on Europe's conference circuit. While Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko expressed confidence in his country's future, concerns surfaced repeatedly at the meeting's sessions and more often in quiet, candid conversations.